What are the odds...Stochastics in Spiritualism

Hi there,
Could someone guide me to methods in stochastics, please?

A young lady books an appointment for a private sitting, and her grandmother is the most cherished person in spirit. My initial suggestion for her appointment is the grandmother’s date of birth (DOB).

Scientifically speaking, how likely is this?

Not sure how random possibility works with private readings High5. Please explain the circumstances i.e are you the medium, is she trying to chose a medium, is she expecting a medium can call the Spirit. Or do you and they  understand the true nature of proof of survival mediumship.

the latter: Or do you and they  understand the true nature of proof of survival mediumship.
yes, I am the medium, she is the sitter...
but she is describing herself as having a scientific brain...

Chat GPT answered with multiple modells or methods to calculate:

If no contextual information is available, the likelihood of guessing the grandmother's DOB purely by chance is extremely low, around 0.0045%. Incorporating additional data (e.g., cultural or age-related factors) increases the probability of a successful guess but still leaves it highly unlikely without further refinement.

also:
2. Calculate the Total Sample Space:
The total number of possible DOBs depends on how you define the range:

Days per Year: Assume an average of 365 days per year.
Year Range: Let’s assume the grandmother’s DOB is between 1920 and 1980 (61 years).
Total Possible DOBs = 365 × 61 = 22,265 possible dates.

High5 wrote:Hi there,
Could someone guide me to methods in stochastics, please?

A young lady books an appointment for a private sitting, and her grandmother is the most cherished person in spirit. My initial suggestion for her appointment is the grandmother’s date of birth (DOB).

Scientifically speaking, how likely is this?

How likely is WHAT

Too much bitching going on at the moment on this forum.

InwardLight wrote:Too much bitching going on at the moment on this forum.

this forum or this thread?

High5 wrote:the latter: Or do you and they  understand the true nature of proof of survival mediumship.
yes, I am the medium, she is the sitter...
but she is describing herself as having a scientific brain...

Chat GPT answered with multiple modells or methods to calculate:

If no contextual information is available, the likelihood of guessing the grandmother's DOB purely by chance is extremely low, around 0.0045%. Incorporating additional data (e.g., cultural or age-related factors) increases the probability of a successful guess but still leaves it highly unlikely without further refinement.

also:
2. Calculate the Total Sample Space:
The total number of possible DOBs depends on how you define the range:

Days per Year: Assume an average of 365 days per year.
Year Range: Let’s assume the grandmother’s DOB is between 1920 and 1980 (61 years).
Total Possible DOBs = 365 × 61 = 22,265 possible dates.

I see where you are coming from with this. I looked up ChatGPT on Google after reading your post and had some fun with it. It seems a perfect tool to use for a scientifically minded sitter to show what the odds are against you correctly guessing the info. It may not satisfy them enough but it could be seen as cooperating with their sceptism. Always a good move lol.

I’d have thought the odds were simply 1/365 aren’t they? Unless you got the year too. I guess one could surmise that a person might ask for a sitting near a significant date for them and then your next appointment would perhaps be quite close which might make it more likely you’d pick that date.

I can’t see it being statistically significant unless you do it a few times but it’s a curious coincidence. Someone who knows more about statistics might correct me

what was the question again?
what is this thread actually about?
whether a sitter should book a sitting on their grandmother's birthday?
or whether the 'medium' should book it on that date for them? (how would they even know the date?)
am I missing something?

Slatewriter wrote:what was the question again?
what is this thread actually about?
whether a sitter should book a sitting on their grandmother's birthday?
or whether the 'medium' should book it on that date for them? (how would they even know the date?)
am I missing something?

I am not sure you missed anything at all but I think it was about measuring  the odds of the first date being suggested by High5 for the sitting being Grandma’s birthday. Something we would not normally think of as unusual ….because it’s not unusual, until you measure it scientifically. A good way to drive ourselves bonkers perhaps but I found the online tool good fun for 10 minutes.